Is the Feeling of Social Disintegration Rising?

As I was reading the State Bank of Pakistan's most recent state-of-the-economy report, I felt a sudden surge of insecurity. Though, it would be unfair to classify this particular report any more disturbing than the everyday chatter about ever-deteriorating law and order situation in the country. But one aspect of the report that really struck a different chord was the mismatch between our country's GDP growth and inflation figures (20% is the current inflation rate). As the annual GDP growth targets are being served with a downward revision every few weeks (2.5% is the most recent figure), it is clear that we as a nation are producing less and less. And so as the laws of economics would have us believe - subsequently we are consuming less.

A logical correlation that someone with as limited knowledge of complex economic systems as mine might draw would predict the inflation to also see a similar downward trend. I mean, it seems pretty logical right? Prices rise either because of shortage of supply or increase in demand (with other factors kept constant). Now if we are producing at a far less rate than last year, we couldn't possibly be consuming at a relatively higher rate. So increase in demand couldn't possibly be pushing the inflation numbers. Now look at the other side of the picture. While the imports have come down in real terms, the domestic production is only reacting to lowered demand from consumers. So there isn't a real shortage of supply of goods. So what the hell is pushing up inflation?

Well economists with a more in-depth knowledge of the subject than mine are better suited to explain to us why and how the inflation rate just continues to rise. Here, I just want to highlight one aspect of this depressing and dangerous trend. As people get laid off from struggling companies or are denied bonuses and raises as a result of less than expected profits or earn less running their small businesses, their pockets would remain shallow in these pressing times. As they go to the market with a reduced dispensable income and face the onslaught of increasing prices for even the most necessary goods (that is because our SPI is always a step ahead of the CPI), they are bound to feel the psychological impact of this abhorrent mismatch. One can never overestimate what damaging effects such inequity between income and prices would bring to the social order.

Combine these stressful economic times with the rising sense of physical insecurity and terrorist activities and what you have is a society that is trapped in a vicious circle of economic hopelessness and fear of personal security. What could you expect from such a society? a continued push for social integrity and national solidarity? a peaceful and patient resilience in the face of this economic slump? a persistent effort to unregister the deepening sense of disintegrating national cohesion? - none of these. Matter of fact you could expect to see a mirror opposite of these defining social values. This might seem a highly exaggerated and most despair expectation but it isn't so. Watch the video appended below that was recorded by a CCTV camera installed inside a MCB ATM booth to just get an image of what might become more commonplace in our surroundings.What disturbs me the most about the video isn't its content - but the fact that none of us actually felt an extraordinary sense of insecurity or even a deep feeling of loss for the victim after having watched this video. We have become far too comfortable with these incidents and it just goes to shows how little pushed we feel to take any action against it. This psychological state of 'powerlessness' over the crumbling social affairs only leads to mob chaos and and a cut-throat struggle for personal survival. Lets not discuss it further, it is already too depressing.I wish this 'imminent social disorder' (the term has exited in the social rhetoric for years now) doesn't come to pass because no matter how difficult life has become in Pakistan, I still wish to stay here and not seek a greener fields abroad.